Election years always come with waves of headlines and speculation. Real estate investors may feel the urge to wait until the dust settles before buying another property or making major capital commitments. The uncertainty, even if the practical impact is limited, makes it feel riskier.

Decades of housing data, though, show what election years tend to do to the market (and what they don’t).

No predictions here or speculation based on who wins the vote. We’re just looking at the track record.

5 Things We Typically See in the Real Estate Market in an Election Year

#1 – Sales activity slows briefly during the fall.

Housing consultancy Meyers Research (now Zonda) studied 13 presidential election years dating back to 1980 and found that new home sales dropped a median of 15% between October and November. In the year after an election, the same seasonal dip was just 8%.

The reason comes down to simple uncertainty. People delay investment or difficult-to-reverse decisions. Buying a house is a prime example. The effect seems stronger when races are close and when policy positions are farther apart.

#2 – Those delayed sales come back.

According to Ali Wolf, who led economic research as Meyes/Zonda at the time, the sales lost in election seasons typically recover by December the following year. The year after an election often produces the strongest sales of the four-year cycle.

Data show that home sales increased in the year following 9 of the 11 past presidential elections.

#3 – Home prices follow the economy, not the ballot.

A Bankrate analysis of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index found that home prices climbed an average of 4.84% in presidential election years since 1987 (slightly outpacing the 4.44% average in non-election years).

The major exception, unsurprisingly, was the 12% drop in 2008, but it was due to the financial crisis of the time, not the Obama-McCain race. Mortgage rates, supply, employment, and household formation drive home values. It would be rare to see an election season move those levers alone.

#4 – Mortgage rates often ease heading into November.

Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey shows that 30-year mortgage rates averaged lower in November than in July in nine of the eleven presidential election years from 1984 through 2024. Rates respond far more to inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and the bond market, so past patterns are not a guarantee.

#5 – Rental demand pays elections no mind.

People need a place to live, April or November, election year or otherwise. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has tracked rents through its Consumer Price Index since 1914, and that index has trended steadily upward through decades of elections.

Residents don’t postpone housing decisions until results roll in. Leases renew, families relocate, and new households form regardless. That consistency is a big part of SFR appeal for passive investors.

Further Reading: What 20+ Years in Real Estate Taught Us About Market Cycles

What About Midterm Elections?

There’s no specific data targeting midterm years and real estate market trends, but the same Case-Shiller figures apply. The 9 midterm years since 1990 posted a median price gain of about 4.5%. The weakest years, 1990 and 2010, lined up with a recession and the aftershocks of the housing market crash.

That said, midterms look different at the state level. Roughly three dozen states elect governors in midterm years, and governors and state legislatures shape the policies that impact rental properties (and their investors) most directly: property taxes, landlord-tenant law, and insurance regulations.

For SFR investors, a state’s long-term policy track record is more telling than any national race, and a big reason market selection matters so much.

So…Do Elections Matter for Buy-and-Hold Investors?

If you zoom out, election years are brief ripples in the pond. A buy-and-hold investor who keeps a property for ten years will own it for 2 or 3 presidential elections and several midterms. Short-term hesitation and calendar-driven reactions tend to cost investors more than any tangible impact from the changing of the guard.

The strongest defense against any kind of uncertainty, political or economic, is a sound investment from the start: a property that cash flows under conservative assumptions, in a market with diverse industries and steady demand, backed by cash reserves and professional management.

REI Nation opened its doors in 2003. We’ve been working and investing alongside investors through six presidential elections, the Great Recession, and a global pandemic. As a family-owned company, we’ve watched headlines come and go. What holds steady through it all is the value of well-chosen properties in markets with strong fundamentals.

Planning your next move and want a steady, data-driven perspective? Connect with an REI Nation advisor to talk through a long-term strategy built to hold through any cycle.